SAN PABLO
Havoc forecast if hospital shuts down
Demian Bulwa, Chronicle Staff Writer, San Francisco Chronicle
Friday, April 9, 2004

If beleaguered Doctors Medical Center in San Pablo closes because of its current financial crisis, patients left only with a nearby Kaiser hospital could wait as long as 12 hours for treatment, according to a study released Thursday.

As a result, the lives of some of the Bay Area's poorest residents could be at risk as they are diverted to emergency rooms around the region that are already at or near capacity. Some frustrated patients may decide not to be treated at all, the study concluded.

"Let me put this into perspective: People are going to die," said Dr. Laurel Hodgson, the assistant director of the hospital's emergency room. She said 75 percent of emergency patients arrive between 10 a.m. and 10 p.m. "My advice to West County residents is don't let your child fall off the monkey bars between 10 a.m. and 10 p.m. Kaiser is going to be diverting patients by 10:15 a.m."

The study, commissioned by Contra Costa County, was released at a press conference attended by politicians and health care leaders -- including from Kaiser Permanente's Richmond Medical Center -- who want to save Doctors and are pushing a $52 annual parcel tax proposal they say would do just that.

The study also found that 230 burn-unit patients would have to be sent to San Francisco, San Jose or Chico; that the closure would result in a shortage of 18 critical-care beds, only eight of which could be absorbed by Kaiser and Alta Bates in Berkeley; and that the county might have to add more ambulances because paramedics would be stuck making longer trips. Kaiser's hospital in Richmond would get more than 90 new emergency patients per day if Doctors closes -- nearly a 50 percent increase that will overwhelm its 15-bed emergency department and delay treatment to all patients there, the study said.

"It is in the best interests of Kaiser members to keep Doctors open," said Dr. Timothy Batchelder, physician in chief at Kaiser in Richmond. "This would be like trying to fit two feet into one shoe."

Tenet Healthcare Corp. announced in January that it would stop operating the hospital and on July 31 return the site to the West Contra Costa Health Care District. The move, part of a major downsizing by Tenet, has the health care district sizing up its options -- finding a new partner, running the hospital itself or shutting it down on Aug. 1.

Doctors Medical Center has 232 beds. Its 24-bed emergency department sees 43,000 visits per year, and it serves an area that includes nearly 200,000 people from El Cerrito to Hercules. About 25 percent don't have insurance.

"The loss of it would be a matter of life or death for people here," said Supervisor John Gioia.

Measure D is a $52-a-year parcel tax that would raise an estimated $6 million a year. The election is by mail ballot, and the measure needs support from two-thirds of voters who return the ballot. There is no organized opposition.

Health care district leaders say the hospital, which had a $150 million budget under Tenet, can be self-sufficient. But they say they need the tax money to show lenders they will be able to pay off $30 million to $40 million in startup costs. "It's the operating capital that is a crisis," said Jim Beaver, the executive director of the district, which also owns a smaller facility in Pinole.

E-mail Demian Bulwa at dbulwa@sfchronicle.com.